2012 DC Real Estate Year in Review: Growing Prosperity in the Middle East…of DC

2012 was a banner year for real estate in the District proving yet again that DC is one of the strongest markets in the country.  Let’s take a look inside the numbers to see the what, the where, and the why of DC Real Estate in 2012. 

THE “WHAT”

Increased demand and dwindling supply was the story for DC real estate in 2012.  On the demand side, steady population growth (especially among 24-35 year olds) thanks to DC’s strong economy and ever-increasing livability combined with historically low mortgage rates and dramatic rental rate increases to create a growing pool of potential buyers looking to become homeowners in 2012.  On the supply side, inventory continued to decline throughout the year with active listings falling below 8,000, representing a 40% decrease in active listings from this time last year and a far cry from the peak activity that we witnessed in 2007 when the market topped 25,000 active listings.  With demand outstripping supply, DC saw significant price appreciation in 2012, especially in the more affordable areas of the city where intrepid buyers increasingly engaged in bidding wars.  High demand and reduced inventory also dramatically drove down average days on market resulting in a fast-paced market that both excited and exhausted prospective buyers seeking to get into choice areas before the market passed them by.  While prospective buyers hope that a slew of new rental and condo construction projects (have you seen all the cranes in DC?!?!) that are slated to hit the market in 2013 will increase inventory and slow price appreciation, many experts believe that increasing demand will continue to drive the DC market upwards in the New Year.  That being said, added uncertainty due to the stalled fiscal cliff negotiations and the potential impact of mandatory federal spending cuts on the region’s economy makes predicting the path of the DC real estate market in 2013 considerably harder.

THE “WHERE”

Previous posts have touched on the movement of young professionals and development dollars from West to East within the District.  As you can see 

from the data above, real estate values in Georgetown, Chevy Chase, Cleveland Park, Palisades/Spring Valley, and West End remained the priciest in the city in 2012, well above the district average sale price of $546,000.  With the exception of Chevy Chase (20015), the highest growth in average sales price in 2012 was seen in neighborhoods bordering both sides of the Anacostia River where average home prices were some of the lowest in the city in 2012 (20018: $316,000 20024: $294,000; 20020: $182,000; 20019: $162,000).  From a sales activity perspective, real estate in what I will call Middle East DC was the real story of 2012.  

The Real Winners of 2012

When looking at a combination of indicators, including percentage increase in sales price for both condos and single-family homes (attached and detached), percentage reduction in days on market, average sales price to listing price ratio, and percentage of listings sold within ten days the following areas were arguably the hottest DC real estate this year::

THE “WHY”

In previous blog posts, I have discussed some of the factors that have contributed to our market’s strength:

·        Population Growth: Recent estimates show as many as 1,100 new residents entering the District each month (70% of them under 35!)*.  At a 2.7% growth rate, the DC Metro Area has grown faster than any major region in the country.

·        Expanding Wealth: Since 2007, while the overall economy has expanded a mere 3%, DC’s regional economy has grown a remarkable 14%.  At 5.5%, DCs unemployment rate is close to the lowest for any major metropolitan area.  Since 2010, DC’s middle-income job growth has expanded at four times the national average and the region now ranks fourth in that category.  According to a recent Gallup poll, Washingtonians are the most optimistic in the country about improvements in the economy which is not surprising because DC boasts the region’s wealthiest and best-educated population.** 

·        Mortgage Rates Reach Historic Lows: In November, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage hit a record low 3.31%.  In 2007, a 30 year fixed mortgages averaged 6.34%.  To put this dramatic drop in perspective, a $500,000 home purchased today with a 20% down payment and a mortgage rate of 3.31% rate would come to approximately $2300/month (PITI: principal, interest, taxes, and insurance).  At 6.34%, the same home would cost approximately $3,000/month.  That is a difference of $700 a month and over $260,000 in interest payments over the life of the loan!!

·        Rental Rates Outpace Purchase Market Increases: According to Zillow’s Rental Rate Index, rates district-wide increased 9.1% year over year making buying more attractive that renting in the area for individuals who are planning on being in their home more than 3.5 years***

·        Low Inventory Levels: Active listings dropped below 8,000 units for the first time since 2005 and new listings remain at their lowest level in over a decade.  Limited supply coupled with increasing demand resulted in price appreciation across almost all areas of DC.

*http://dcmud.blogspot.com/2012/10/micro-units-at-wharf-could-be-dcs-first.html

**The Expanding Wealth of Washington by Joel Kotkin. Forbes 3/19/2012

***Zillow Rent vs Buy Index

DESIGN TIPS FOR LIVING LARGE IN SMALL SPACES

Following up on my last post, if the future of DC real estate really is small, how can we deal with it?  For that answer, I reached out to Wendy Danziger (www.DanzigerDesign.com), a prominent interior designer in the DC Metropolitan area whose work was recently featured in Home and Design Magazine and in the DC Design House, for some simple tips for living large in small spaces. 

Use Color to Make Spaces Look Larger 

If the ceilings are over 9ft, paint them a fabulous color and leave the walls light and the wood floors pale
 

Conserve Visual Space with minimalist interior design choices                            

Keep window treatments minimal.  Check out these Matchstick Blinds:

 

Consider furniture that "disappears" like the Victoria Ghost Chair, which takes up less visual space than wood or upholstered chairs 

Maximize Storage and Space with Multi-Functional furniture 

Invest in a bed that has a high profile mattress and boxspring to create greater storage space underneath your bed or consider beds with drawers underneath.  Check out the Stratton Bed from Pottery Barn.

 

If you don't have room for a bed, consider murphy beds or sleep sofas  

 Use banquette seating with storage in a kitchen nook

 

 

 If your kitchen cabinets do not extend to the ceiling  use this area to store rarely used items

 

 

Surfaces should double as storage pieces.  Need a coffee table? Check out the Hunter II Trunk from Crate & Barrel

Consider storage ottomans for seating and storage.  Check out the Vanguard Storage Ottoman from Vanguard Furniture:

 

Storage Everywhere!  

Some space that is ofter underutilized is over the bed, over the toilet, and even in the corners of rooms.

Danziger Design is a full service Interior Design Firm serving Maryland, Virginia and DC. Wendy listens to her clients and works with them to design beautiful and livable spaces.  Visit Danziger Design on the web at www.DanzigerDesign.com or contact them at 301-365-3300.

THE FUTURE OF DC REAL ESTATE IS SINGLE & SMALL

You may have noticed from my recent blog posts that I love to examine societal trends – both nationwide and those specific to the District- to see how they have affected and will continue to affect DC real estate.   My hope is that by understanding the “Why”, readers of this blog will look at DC real estate differently and make more informed choices about the “What”, “Where”, “When”, and “How Much” when making  their real estate choices.  Today’s post tackles another trend that is reshaping the real estate market in DC and is largely driven by young professionals*: the rise of the single person household.

In 1950, 10% of all American households were one-person households.  Today that figure is 28% nationally, around 45% in DC, and continuing to rise*!  While there are a multitude of factors that contribute to this long term trend- people marrying later in life, divorce rates increasing, the rise of the economic power and independence of women, urbanization, etc.- what I find most interesting is how this trend affects what we buy and where and how we live.  DC is looking more and more like Europe every day (Stockholm is over 50% single person households) with little Fiats, Mini Coopers, and Smart Cars zipping around the streets (don’t even get me started on the Vespas and bicyclists!).  While a lot of these changes can be ascribed to our society going “greener”, I believe that sheer pragmatism is just as significant of a factor in more people “going small”.  More single-person households means less need for 4 doors (if you’re single, how often do you really use the rear doors of your car?) and a huge trunk to make Costco runs (if you live alone do you really need to buy toilet paper by the pallet?).  Put simply, the trade-off of space for cost and efficiency is simply easier to make in smaller households.

Outside of auto manufacturers, we are also seeing real estate developers and urban planners responding to these trends with denser developments and ever smaller condo units.  With 1,100 new residents entering the District each month (70% of them under the age of 35!)**, DC city planners have entertained a host of ideas to increase density, including a recent proposal to increase the maximum allowable building height above its current 160 ft threshold (By comparison Tulsa, OK has 17 buildings over 200 ft…even Fargo, N.D. has two!) and introducing the Fiat of real estate development, the micro studio, to our housing mix.

RISE OF THE MICRO STUDIO

At sizes ranging from 220 - 375 square feet, the “micro studio” is now being introduced to the DC market by some intrepid developers who feel that DC’s changing demographics will create an increasing demand for smaller living.  To make these smaller spaces more attractive, developers are not only using architecture and design to make spaces feel bigger and function better but they are also creating community amenities and bringing in businesses that provide residents “living” space outside of their micro-units in an effort to foster connective living.  From a design standpoint, this translates to higher ceilings, larger windows that are angled to pick up viewing area and capture more light, smaller appliances, and incorporating multi-functional furniture (think Murphy bed units that transform into couches, entertainment centers, desk space, and storage….check out this video!) 

From a community standpoint, having business centers or coffee shops that are accessible to residents reduces the need for a home office or secondary living space in the unit.  Having local grocery stores or encouraging farmers’ markets where residents can get easy access to fresh food reduces the need to have large kitchens to store food.  By building self-sustaining environments that foster connectivity while creating interior spaces that maximize functionality, developers and city planners hope to attract DC’s growing single person households into denser and denser communities at price points they can afford (think below $250,000).  

THE FUTURE OF DC REAL ESTATE IS SMALL

Will micro-studios catch on?  We may get our first glimpse at the answer to this question when PN Hoffman-Madison Waterfront delivers its $1.5 billion, 35 acre redevelopment of the Southwest Waterfront (www.swdcwaterfront.com) , which will feature units ranging from 330-380 square feet (see rendering above).  Even if micro-studios are not the ultimate answer to the need for denser living, the demographic trends are hard to ignore.  With a growing population of single person households streaming into the District, smaller and smaller condos will become a greater percentage of our housing mix.

 * Eric Klinenberg on Going Solo: The surprising benefits, to oneself and to society, of living alone .  Smithsonian Magazine, February 2012.

**Statistics from the DC Office of Planning

THE GREEN LINE IS THE NEW RED LINE

Last post, I discussed the dramatic effect that the influx of young professionals into the District has had on our local real estate market.  Now, let’s shift our focus to the equally remarkable effects of the migration of young professionals and development dollars within the district on the property values and the lifestyle amenities available in many reemerging Washington neighborhoods. 

It doesn’t require forty years of wandering (or wondering!) to understand the exodus of young professionals from upper NW DC to neighborhoods farther east.  When I was shopping for a condo in 2003, I looked at a unit in Logan Circle but decided that the area was “not ready for prime time” and was therefore too risky of an investment.  Since 2003, home values in Logan Circle have soared 60% and Logan has become one of the city’s most desirable locales.  A few more investment decisions like that and I might be joining Big Bird in the unemployment line!  What I failed to realize at that time was that the waves of young professionals that were continuing to stream into DC had to live somewhere and housing in Upper NW was simply becoming too expensive.  Just like air flowing from an area of high pressure to one of low pressure, over the past ten years young professionals and development dollars have increasingly flowed east within the city seeking to find and profit from more affordable housing options.  This infusion of youth and capital has brought with it a renewed focus on modern urban design - emphasizing transit-oriented development, sustainable building, and increased access to retail , nightlife, and community resources -  to some of DC’s most historic and beautiful neighborhoods*.      

THE GREEN LINE IS THE NEW RED LINE

With 32% of all new 18-to-34-year-old households in the District since 2000** concentrated within ¼ mile of its stations, the tremendous growth around the Green Line is representative of the eastward migration of young professionals and development dollars as well as the District’s efforts to foster the growth of “Live, Play, Work” communities throughout the city.  Here are three Green Line neighborhoods that have seen and will continue to see dramatic changes to their look, feel, and property values: 

DEVELOPMENT UPDATES: THE CHANGING FACE OF DC

Petworth (20011)

·         Between 2009 – 2011, four major residential and commercial developments delivered near the Georgia Avenue/Petworth Metrorail station. Park Place (161 apartments and 17,000 sq. ft. of retail space), Residences at Georgia Avenue (72 apartments and a 11,500 square foot Yes! Organic Market), The Griffin (49 apartments) and 3Tree Flats (130 apartments) have created a new neighborhood center. Furthermore, Safeway is planning to replace its current 21,000 square foot store with 220 residential units above a modern 62,000 square foot grocery store.***

Shaw (20001)

·         Home to the 2.3 million sq. ft. Washington Convention Center that hosted 204 events and more than one million people in 2011.  The historic Howard Theater recently reopened after a $24 million renovation.  Cultural investment has also been made with the opening of the new, award-winning, Watha T. Daniel/Shaw Library and new public art throughout the neighborhood.  CityMarket at O Street, a $260 million development, promises to be the neighborhood’s new epicenter in 2013 and will be anchored by a 72,000 square foot flagship Giant Food supermarket, a 182-room Cambria Suites Hotel, 626 residential units and 560 parking spaces. The 1,167-room Marriott Marquis convention center hotel is under construction and scheduled to open in 2014.*** 

Southwest Waterfront (20024)

·         The openings of the Mandarin Oriental Hotel, the newly expanded Arena Stage and the new 55,000 square foot Safeway and are just part of the cultural, hospitality, and retail offerings that enhance the urban vitality of this rapidly developing neighborhood.  The master plan for The Wharf (www.swdcwaterfront.com)  includes 1,200 residential units, 400,000 square feet of office space, 200,000 square feet of retail space, 625 hotel rooms, 100,000 square feet of cultural space, a 400 – 500 slip marina, 12 acres of open space and 1,900 – 3,050 parking spaces. The project will be a part of the USGBC’s LEED Neighborhood Development program and the first LEED-Gold certified mixed-use project in DC. Phase I is expected to start in late 2012.***

*While this has resulted in tremendous property value increases and investment returns for early movers, it is important to note that the changes that have already occurred and those that are planned in the near future have had and will continue to have very real and not always positive repercussions for long-time residents of these areas.  A recent study examining housing trends found that the ZIP codes covering Shaw, Ledroit Park, Bloomingdale, Columbia Heights, Mt. Pleasant, and Logan Circle are three of the top twenty fastest gentrifying ZIP codes in the entire country. 

**GreenPrint of Growth, January 12, 2012 by RCLCO.

*** Source: Washington DC Economic Partnership (www.wdcep.com)